A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Palomar (PLMR Quick QuotePLMR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 19.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Palomar due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Palomar’s Q3 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates

Palomar Holdings, Inc.’s reported third-quarter 2020 operating loss of 62 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of operating loss of 55 cents. In the year-ago quarter, it had reported operating income of 40 cents.

Palomar witnessed escalating expenses and underwriting loss in the reported quarter, offset by improved premiums.

Behind the Q3 Headlines

Total revenues improved 43.3% year over year to $43 million, mainly attributable to higher premiums, net investment income and commission and other income. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.5%.

Gross written premiums increased 55.4% year over year to $102.9 million. Net written premiums grew 60.8% year over year to $61.4 million owing to an increase in gross written premiums.

Net investment income increased 23.7% year over year to $2.1 million. The increase was the result of a higher average balance of investments held during the three months ended Sep 30, 2020 attributable primarily to cash generated from operations as well as proceeds from the company’s January and June 2020 stock offerings.

Palomar witnessed underwriting loss of $24 million versus underwriting income of $7.4 million in the year-earlier period.

Total expenses increased 218% to $66.8 million, mainly due to higher losses and loss adjustment expenses and acquisition expenses.

Adjusted combined ratio deteriorated 9220 basis points (bps) year over year to 155.8%.

Financial Update

As of Sep 30, 2020, Palomar Holdings had assets worth $699.7 million, up 76.9% from the level at 2019 end.

Cash and cash equivalents decreased 57.6% from 2019-end level to about $14 million.

Shareholder equity at the end of the reported quarter increased 65.6% from 2019-end to $361.9 million.

Annualized adjusted return on equity was negative 17% in the third quarter of 2020, compared to 14.6% in the year-ago quarter.

2020 Outlook

Palomar Holdings updated its prior guidance of adjusted net income of $51.0 to $52.0 million excluding catastrophe losses, equating to a growth rate of 35% to 37% from 2019.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -43.42% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Palomar has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Palomar has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.